Moody's is calling the bottom of the housing market for this year.
 
House prices in much of the U.S. will bottom out in this year's fourth quarter, Moody's Economy.com says in a new report. In some of the hardest hit markets, however, prices won't reach a bottom until 2010 or 2011, the research firm says in a report written by its chief economist, Mark Zandi. "Despite the darkening national economic outlook and the weak conditions in the housing market, some positive signs give hope that a bottom in the housing market is coming into view," the report says.
 
What does this mean for Maui real estate? It means those who move and sift among the extraordinary opportunities currently available will be long-term big winners.
 
Contact us for the best deals on Maui.
Lately we have received several questions on the nature of the allowable businesses that can be operated in the Kai Ani Village Live-Work units. Essentially the limitations are negative in nature. For example:
  • No liquor sales
  • No adult entertainment
  • No medical surgery
  • No use of caustic chemicals
  • No operations before 8am and after 6pm
  • No excessive noise
The intended nature of the uses are professional in nature, perhaps some retail, but all in keeping with the convenience and quiet of the entire neighborhood.
 
For specific questions, please contact us!

 The Mahina is a 1032 square foot, one level, two bedroom, two bathroom unit. Entering through the kitchen hallway, one walks through the conveniently located kitchen to drop off groceries and proceeds to the approximately14×21 Great Room. This expansive space, the dominant characteristic of the Mahina Plan, easily accommodates a family gathering, playing children or a party. The Great Room adjoins the large lanai for an even larger contiguous space and at the other end leads to a sleek, contemporary kitchen primed for gourmet activity. The spacious master suite also opens onto the lanai and offers a luxurious private bath with a walk-in shower. The Mahina Plan separates the sleeping quarters with a laundry room, storage and utility spaces for enhanced privacy. The second bedroom also boasts a private bath with a bathtub and is conveniently located to the kitchen in case the need for a midnight snack arises.

 

The Mahina Plan fits the owner who prefers a large central gathering space for family and fun, but who also demands the privacy when Maui’s wonderful days come to an end. Here is a detailed drawing of the Mahina floorplan.
 
If you are considering purchasing Maui real estate, Kai Ani Village is a great choice. Contact us for more details!
At least it has if the stimulus package passes this week. Here is why!
 
 The Senate on Wednesday voted to expand the economic stimulus package with a tax credit for homebuyers of up to $15,000, a provision championed by Republicans as addressing a root cause of the recession.
 
So if one purchases a Kai Ani Village unit in the next year and uses it as a primary residence? One gets an immediate $15,000 deduction in one's taxes.
 
For details, contact us 
The attached chart is form our friends at Calculated Risk and summarizes the economic forecasts of Merrill Lynch, Northern Trust, the UCLA Anderson School and a consensus view of some other Wall Street economists. The current quarter is likely the worst we will see. Nearly everyone expects a rebound to one degree or another in the second half of 2009. David Rosenberg at Merrill Lynch, historically a real bear, is the most bullish with his rebound predicated on the tax cuts contained in the stimulus package. 
 
What does this mean for Maui real estate?  Directly? Not much. But the sentiment change we will see in the second half of the year is likely to be embraced by potential buyers. In the past, this has meant the savviest buyers act before that and move when the selection is greatest.
 
For details, contact us.

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The new York Times printed a useful article regarding mortgage backed bonds and the issues facing the Federal Government and the banks themselves in valuing these securities. While this might seem an esoteric topic, it lies at the core of the problems in the banking system. This doesn't affect the Maui real estate market directly in a major way, but it does impact buyers' thinking. Here are some key snippets:
 

But getting this right will not be easy. The wild variations on the value of many bad bank assets can be seen by looking at one mortgage-backed bond recently analyzed by a division of Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating agency. The financial institution that owns the bond calculates the value at 97 cents on the dollar, or a mere 3 percent loss. But S.& P. estimates it is worth 87 cents, based on the current loan-default rate, and could be worth 53 cents under a bleaker situation that contemplates a doubling of defaults. But even that might be optimistic, because the bond traded recently for just 38 cents on the dollar, reflecting the even gloomier outlook of investors. The bond analyzed by S.& P. is just one of thousands that the government might buy or guarantee should it go forward with setting up a “bad bank” that would acquire $1 trillion or more of toxic assets from banks.

That sort of price disagreement is just inconsistent with a liquid market. The bid and offer should be measured in fractions of cents. When we see opinions on value begin to narrow, that will be an important indicator the mortgage market is on the rebound. The entire article is worth reading. For details contact us!

The US economy contracted 3.8% in the fourth quarter, the worst number in twenty five years. Here are some key snippets from the Bureau of Economic Analysis:
 
The decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures, equipment and software, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by positive contributions from private inventory investment and federalgovernment spending.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
 
So the declines were broad based and disturbing. However, results were actually better than the anticipated 5.5% decline.
 
So what does this mean for Maui real estate? Well, there is no way to spin this sort of economic result as good news. But it would seem that this reinforces the idea that for people considering buying Maui real estate this may well be a once in a generation opportunity to obtain property.
 
For details contact us!
As the world becomes more aware of human impact on our environment, considerations like the walkability of where we live becomes more important. What exactly is walkability? Well according to Walkscore.com  it includes the following:
  • A Center
  • Density
  • Mixed income and use
  • Parks and public space
  • Pedestrian-centric design
  • Nearby schools and workplaces
In these times of uncertain energy prices, this matters for Maui real estate as well. So how do some Kihei condominium complexes rate according to Walkscore?
  • Hale Kanani? A mediocre score of 46.
  • Ke Alii Ocean Villas? Slightly better at 51.
  • Kamaole Sands? A mediocre 46.
Kai Ani Village? A stellar score of 82!
 
For details contact us!
More and more we are seeing people, our buying clients and others, talking about foreclosures and short sales as where they wish to focus. There seems to be a belief that foreclosures and their siblings short sales represent the best values. But it simply isn't necessarily true anywhere and it certainly isn't driving things on Maui. Here are some reasons why:
  • The value proposition in a specific property is driven by the desires of the owner. Foreclosures speak to their financial condition, NOT the value proposition. It is entirely possible that the best deal is a property without a mortgage. But if you limit yourself to foreclosures? You'll never see it. Now is it possible the best value is a foreclosure? Yes. But never simply because it is a foreclosure.
  • When dealing with an owner/seller one can quickly determine if a deal can be made. You can make your investment decision on your time frame, with the facts at hand now. You can drive the process. In dealing with overwhelmed large institutions? Their bureaucratic requirements drive timing etc. While you are waiting on them? A new deal could pass you by or the deal you want can be snatched away at any time.
  • Unlike parts of California, in South Maui and along the Maui Oceanfront, there simply are not enough troubled situations to drive the marketplace. So by limiting one's self that way, a buyer is going to see a tiny sliver of the market when they have the ability to drive transactions much more broadly.

To discuss these issue further, contact us!

The National Association of Realtors released December data today. Here are some key snippets and what they mean for Maui real estate.
Existing-home sales rose unexpectedly while inventory declined, led by a surge of sales in the West, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing-home sales